India’s draw against Sri Lanka in the second Test at the Colombo SSC has made their road to the World Test Championship final tougher.Sri Lanka held India to a draw after a remarkable fightback on the fifth day. As a result, India won the two-Test series 1-0 instead of completing a 2-0 sweep.The draw gave India 16 points from the Sri Lanka series instead of the maximum 24. India now sit fifth in the WTC points table with a PCT of 51.52.With Bangladesh drawing their series in Australia 1-1, the race for the two WTC final spots has become more interesting as the competition moves into its next phase.
What India need to do
India have seven Tests left in the current WTC cycle. They will first play two Tests away from home against New Zealand before hosting Australia for a five-Test series.Series left for India
- New Zealand: 2 Tests (away)
- Australia: 5 Tests (home)
The simplest path for India is to win all seven matches. If they do that, they will finish with a PCT of 70.37, which should put them in a very strong position to reach the final.
WTC points table after India-Sri Lanka Test
| Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Draw | Points | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 96 | 80.00 |
| South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 75.00 |
| New Zealand | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 72.22 |
| Bangladesh | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 55.56 |
| India | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 51.52 |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 33.33 |
| England | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 50 | 29.76 |
| West Indies | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 20.83 |
| Pakistan | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 19.05 |
Six wins could take India close to 65 PCT
India can also afford one defeat in their remaining seven Tests. Six wins and one loss would take their final PCT to close to 65.That would also mean India take a significant number of points away from Australia, who are currently leading the table and will face India in five Tests.For context, the last two WTC cycles have seen the finalists qualify with a wide range of PCTs. In the previous cycle, South Africa and Australia reached the final with 69.44% and 67.54%, respectively. In the 2023 edition, Australia qualified with 66.67%, while India made the final with 58.80%.
What if India lose in New Zealand?
India’s situation will become more difficult if they lose both Tests in New Zealand.Even if India then beat Australia 5-0 at home, they would finish with a PCT of 59.26. That would keep them in contention, but they would then be heavily dependent on other results going their way.The draw in Colombo, therefore, has made the New Zealand series and the five-Test home series against Australia even more important for India. While qualification is still firmly in their own hands, they have little room for error in their remaining seven Tests.
