US employment growth in the year to March 2026 was weaker than initially estimated, with the US bureau of labour Statistics (BLS) putting the preliminary downward adjustment to total nonfarm employment at 79,000, or 0.1 per cent.The private sector recorded a larger preliminary revision, with employment adjusted down by 178,000, also equivalent to 0.1 per cent.“The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1 per cent),” the US Bureau of Labour Statistics stated in its report. “The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1 per cent).”The revision emerged from the annual process of comparing current employment statistics estimates with employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The latter draws on mandatory state unemployment insurance tax records submitted by nearly all employers to state workforce agencies.The BLS said the size of the adjustment was within the range seen historically, noting that annual benchmark revisions over the past decade had an absolute average of 0.2 per cent of total nonfarm employment.“The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 per cent of total nonfarm employment,” the report said.The bureau said the preliminary figure should be viewed as an indication of the difference between two independently derived employment counts, both of which are subject to their own sources of error.“The preliminary benchmark revision reflects the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own sources of error,” the bureau noted.“It serves as a preliminary measure of the total error in CES employment estimates from March 2025 to March 2026,” the agency added.The preliminary exercise also showed that revisions varied across major industry sectors. Several individual industry series registered larger percentage changes than the overall nonfarm employment figure, which the bureau said was mainly because more detailed industry estimates face greater statistical sampling error.“As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level,” the report stated.The latest figures have not altered the current official establishment survey estimates. The BLS said the preliminary benchmark revision would not be incorporated into those estimates at this stage.The final adjustment is scheduled for February 2027, when the January 2027 Employment Situation news release is published.“In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release,” it reported, adding, that the final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release in February 2027.
