Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are down from recent highs and a firmer dollar is adding to its woes. The bias for gold prices continues to stay cautious, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Below is her outlook:Gold has had a rough month. It’s fallen nearly 12% from its August highs, touching a seven-week low of $4,111 an ounce. Treasury yields have been the biggest headwind, with the 30-year touching its highest level since 2002 and the 10-year near its highest since 2007, as persistent inflation worries and a hawkish Fed keep borrowing costs elevated.A firmer dollar has added to the pain. But here’s the interesting part observed over the last few weeks with respect to ETF flows. Even as prices fell, gold ETF holdings kept rising towards a multi-year high, which shows investors haven’t actually given up on gold.Things calmed down a bit this week. Oil eased slightly as Saudi supply improved, which took some heat off inflation worries. The Fed also sounded a bit less hawkish, with one official suggesting just one more hike this year could be enough, and that pulled October rate-hike odds down to around 50% from 70%. That gave gold some breathing room. There’s also a seasonal angle to Gold. China’s Golden Week holiday starts 1 October, which usually kicks off its biggest gold-buying season of the year, and helped stabilize prices yesterday.
Gold: Focus for the Week
The big data points are US inflation (PCE) due today and the jobs report on Friday, both of which will shape how the Fed acts in October. Beyond that, watch for any Iran-related headlines, oil supply news, and whether ETF buying keeps holding up. China’s Golden Week holiday, from 1-7 October, also kicks off its peak gold-buying season, and any pickup in jewellery demand there could offer some support.
Gold Price Outlook
The bias stays cautious, with yields and Fed policy still the dominant driver even as the pace of losses has slowed. A soft PCE print or weak payrolls could pull yields down and give gold real relief, while hot data would revive hike bets and pressure prices back towards the $4,110 low, opening a test of $4,000. On the upside, an Iran breakthrough or fading ETF demand are the two swing factors to watch, since one could unlock the traditional safe-haven case for gold, while the other could deepen the selloff. For now, gold looks like it’s searching for a base rather than a fresh trend, with China’s seasonal buying offering some underlying support at the start of October.
Technical Levels
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4178/oz
- Support: $4,100 / $4,025
- Resistance: $4,300 / $4,380
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,49,940
- Support: Rs 1,47,100/ Rs 1,44,500
- Resistance: Rs 1,53,500/ Rs 1,55,100
Silver:International Silver CMP: $61/oz
- Support: $59 / $57
- Resistance: $63.50/ $65.50
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,26,100
- Support: Rs 2,18,500/ Rs 2,11,100
- Resistance: Rs 2,35,150 / Rs 2,42,500
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