Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are seeing a range-bound bias, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Let’s take a look at what the analyst has to say:Gold enters the week near Rs 148,000 after a sharp correction from the September high around Rs 163,000–165,000, with prices now consolidating after briefly falling towards the Rs 145,500–146,000 region.On the hourly chart, immediate structure remains weak to neutral, as gold is trading below the 20-period average near Rs 148,216, while the upper and lower Bollinger Bands are placed around Rs 148,832 and Rs 147,600 respectively.However, recent recovery from the Rs 145,500 area and subsequent consolidation around Rs 147,500–148,500 suggest that selling momentum is gradually stabilising. Immediate support is placed at Rs 147,500, followed by Rs 146,000–145,500; a sustained break below this region could expose Rs 143,500–144,000.On the upside, Rs 148,800–149,000 is the first hurdle, followed by the psychologically important Rs 150,000–150,500 zone. A sustained move above Rs 150,500 could improve momentum and open the way towards Rs 152,500–153,500, followed by Rs 155,000.From a broader one-to-three-month perspective, structure remains constructive as long as the Rs 145,000 region holds, with the current weakness still resembling a correction rather than a decisive reversal of the broader trend.Overall, the near-term bias remains range bound: Rs 150,500 on lower side, while a breakout above Rs 153,500 would provide stronger confirmation that the corrective phase is ending and could bring Rs 155,000–158,000 back into focus.Gold enters the week around $4,175 with a relatively resilient undertone as expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike have eased, although elevated real yields and a firm dollar continue to restrict the upside.Cautious commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced market expectations for an October increase to below 20%, providing some relief to bullion following the sharp repricing of rates during September.Softer crude oil prices have also moderated immediate energy-driven inflation concerns, although underlying price pressures continue to leave the possibility of another Fed hike later this year on the table. Importantly, gold has displayed unusual resilience despite substantially higher US Treasury yields.Investors increasingly appear to view elevated longer-term yields partly as compensation for rising US fiscal deficits, debt-servicing costs and concerns over debt sustainability, rather than simply as evidence of stronger economic growth.This has weakened the traditionally straightforward negative relationship between yields and bullion. Investment demand also remains supportive, with global gold ETF holdings increasing by around 187 tonnes during August and September, indicating continued strategic allocation despite recent price volatility.Chinese demand provides another underlying floor amid relatively low domestic interest rates and limited alternative investment opportunities, while central-bank purchases are estimated around 250–300 tonnes during Q3.Nevertheless, elevated real yields remain the principal near-term headwind. Attention now shifts towards the upcoming Fed meeting and PCE inflation, with softer inflation potentially supporting gold through lower rate expectations, while an upside surprise could revive tightening concerns and pressure bullion.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
