Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to continue trading sideways with a downward bias, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Let’s take a look at his detailed analysis:Gold enters week near Rs 138,500 after extending its October correction, with the hourly structure continuing to reflect a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Prices have declined sharply from above Rs 151,000 earlier in October and are currently trading well below the 20-period average near Rs 140,660, confirming continued selling pressure.The Bollinger Bands are placed around Rs 143,877 on the upside and Rs 137,442 on the downside, with prices trading close to the lower band after the latest breakdown. Immediate support is placed around Rs 137,400–138,000, followed by Rs 135,000–136,000; a sustained break below this zone could expose Rs 132,000–133,000.On the upside, Rs 140,500–141,000 is now the first important hurdle, followed by Rs 143,000–144,000. A sustained recovery above Rs 144,000 would be required to meaningfully improve the short-term structure and could open the way towards Rs 146,000–147,000.Overall, the near-term technical bias remains sideways to lower below Rs 141,000, although the magnitude and speed of the recent correction increase the possibility of short-covering or a technical rebound. For the broader structure, reclaiming Rs 144,000–146,000 would be necessary before considering the correction to be stabilising.Gold enters the week attempting to recover towards $3,900 following another sharp correction, with bargain hunting and persistent geopolitical uncertainty providing support at lower levels. However, the broader macro environment remains challenging as a liquidity adjustment across global markets has triggered selling across multiple asset classes.The recent AI-led correction in technology shares has encouraged investors to reduce risk and meet margin requirements, resulting in profit-booking across gold and silver following their substantial earlier rallies. This helps explain why bullion has struggled to benefit fully from equity-market weakness and geopolitical uncertainty, as gold has temporarily been used as a source of liquidity rather than purely as a safe-haven asset.Treasury yields remain another major headwind. Long-dated US yields near 5.5% offer investors increasingly attractive risk-free returns while simultaneously tightening financial conditions beyond the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. Elevated yields increase gold’s opportunity cost and have contributed to the recent liquidation.At the same time, persistently high borrowing costs are increasing concerns over US debt-servicing expenses, fiscal sustainability and eventually economic growth. This creates a mixed environment: yields remain negative for gold in the immediate term, but the fiscal consequences of sustaining such high rates could strengthen bullion’s longer-term diversification case.Monetary policy remains restrictive after the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, while retaining the possibility of another increase if inflation remains persistent.The absence of a clear dovish pivot keeps real yields elevated and leaves bullion sensitive to incoming inflation and labour-market data. Markets will therefore closely monitor whether softer economic activity begins to outweigh persistent inflation risks in determining the next policy move.Geopolitical risks continue to provide an underlying floor. Uncertainty surrounding US–Iran relations and the broader Middle East remains supportive of defensive demand, although gold’s response has been restrained by the stronger influence of yields and liquidity conditions.Meanwhile, dip buying from Chinese investors and longer-term strategic buyers appears to be emerging following the substantial correction, helping prices stabilise around lower levels.Attention now shifts towards the US midterm elections and upcoming labour-market data. The election outcome could materially influence expectations surrounding fiscal policy, government spending, Treasury issuance and political uncertainty, while employment data will be important in determining whether the Fed retains room for another hike.Overall, gold remains vulnerable to elevated real yields and further cross-asset liquidation in the near term, but bargain hunting, geopolitical uncertainty, Chinese demand and growing concerns surrounding US fiscal sustainability could provide an increasingly important floor following the sharp October correction.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
