Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks for a third consecutive day aimed at securing an agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, easing some immediate concerns over supply disruptions.Brent crude futures declined $1.59, or 1.40%, to $111.84 a barrel by 0011 GMT.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.56, or 1.50%, to $102.56 a barrel, according to Reuters.The decline followed a strong rise last week, with Brent ending October at its highest level in six months amid concerns that the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran could escalate again after Tuesday’s US midterm elections.Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the fall reflected a technical correction after last week’s gains, alongside hopes of progress in diplomatic efforts.“Oil is seeing a technical pullback this morning after last week’s strong gains,” Waterer said, as quoted by Reuters.“Lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, have taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now.”However, he cautioned that the market remained alert to the possibility of stronger rhetoric over Iran, which could push Brent crude towards $120 a barrel after the midterm elections.
Iran-Qatar talks and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
The latest price movement came as Iranian and Qatari officials continued consultations aimed at facilitating an agreement to restart direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran.Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the purpose of the “ongoing and progressing” discussions was to continue consultations with Qatari mediators. He added that Tehran was prepared for “both defence and diplomacy”.The diplomatic efforts are taking place against the backdrop of attacks on oil tankers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, which have pushed up global energy and shipping costs.The waterway is a key route for global oil shipments, and disruptions to tanker movements have remained a concern for energy markets during the conflict.
Opec+ keeps December output targets unchanged
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping known as Opec+, kept their December production targets unchanged on Sunday.The decision was in line with market expectations and indicated that the group would not make further policy adjustments until next year, as it continues to face export disruptions linked to the Iran war.Separately, Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil exports in October compared with September, despite attacks by Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi forces on its energy infrastructure, Reuters reported, citing two of three ship-tracking companies.The developments in the Gulf, the outcome of diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Qatar, and the possibility of renewed military escalation after the US midterm elections remain key factors for oil markets.
