Gold price prediction today: While gold prices continue to be supported by central bank buying, the outlook stays cautious, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Below is her outlook:Gold has had a fairly steady but cautious week, trading around $4,137 an ounce, as a mix of forces kept pulling it in different directions. The dollar stayed firm and Treasury yields remained elevated near multi-decade highs, both of which continued to weigh on bullion.A weaker-than-expected US jobs report and steady inflation data did cool off rate-hike worries a bit, with October hike odds now down to less than 1-in-5, from around 40% just a week ago. That gave gold some support, but it hasn’t been enough to spark a real recovery.What’s really caught attention this week is how odd September turned out to be. Gold fell more than 8% that month, even as global gold ETFs pulled in over 70 tonnes of inflows, a combination rarely seen together. It seems futures traders were cutting positions sharply even as ETF investors kept buying, which helps explain the strange disconnect.Meanwhile, China kept adding to its gold reserves for a 23rd straight month, and central banks overall bought 39 tonnes in August, taking this year’s total to 170 tonnes. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran has stepped up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil higher and added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk.
Gold: Focus This Week
The big event is the Fed’s September meeting minutes, due out Wednesday, which should offer more clarity on how policymakers are thinking about further rate hikes. Markets are already leaning dovish for October, but December hike odds remain high at over 85%, so any hawkish surprise in the minutes could shift sentiment quickly.Beyond that, markets will keep an eye on Hormuz-related headlines and oil prices, along with any fresh central bank buying data.
Gold Price Outlook
The near-term picture stays cautious. Lower yields this week have offered gold some breathing room, but levels are still historically elevated, and gold still lacks a clear catalyst for a sustained turnaround.A dovish set of Fed minutes or a cooling in oil prices could help gold push higher, while a hawkish surprise or a fresh escalation in the Hormuz conflict could pressure prices back toward support. For now, structural buyers, central banks and ETF investors, continue to offer a floor even as short-term futures positioning stays jittery.
Technical Levels
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4137/oz
- Support: $4,077 / $4,000
- Resistance: $4,250 / $4,310
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,49,400
- Support: Rs 1,47,265/ Rs 1,44,500
- Resistance: Rs 1,53,500/ Rs 1,55,680
Silver:International Silver CMP: $60.75/oz
- Support: $58.90 / $56.80
- Resistance: $63.50/ $65.50
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,25,700
- Support: Rs 2,18,800/ Rs 2,11,000
- Resistance: Rs 2,35,950 / Rs 2,43,300
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