Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to be choppy as safe haven demand and rising interest rates put opposing pressures, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Here’s her outlook:Gold has had a bit of a rollercoaster this past week. It closed marginally higher at $4,378.63/oz on Friday, and prices have stayed choppy since then. Interestingly, the Fed’s rate hike wasn’t the real story, but it was oil that kept moving gold around.Midweek, news of Saudi Arabia restoring a key pipeline sent gold spiking as much as 2.8% in a session, but that faded once Fed officials flagged that inflation is broader than just an oil problem.By Tuesday, gold had settled into a $4,340-4,360 range, as fresh US-Iran diplomatic hopes knocked oil down over 10%, easing rate-hike worries almost as fast as they’d built up.Talking about the demand, ETF flows tell a genuinely strong story. Global gold ETFs have now seen inflows for nine straight weeks, with $4.24 billion coming in during the week to September 18 alone, over half from the US. China’s demand is even more striking with imports through August already crossing 1,000 tons, beating all of 2025 in eight months, aided by cheaper prices earlier this year and a firmer yuan, while the PBOC bought the most gold since 2023, extending its buying streak to nearly two years.The Indian Gold market has been more cautious. Domestic prices are trading below import parity, with discounts widening sharply from $34/oz in July to $78/oz by mid-September, as old-gold exchange and unofficial supply keep local prices soft. Jewellery demand has cooled after August’s rally and pullback left buyers hesitant, though wedding-related buying stayed resilient, with a shift toward lighter-weight pieces.Indian gold ETFs still added 1.6 tonnes in August, inflows up 67% month-on-month, even as new investor sign-ups slowed. Imports fell sharply, down 45% m/m, suggesting local supply is comfortably covering demand.
Gold: Focus for the Week
With the Fed decision behind markets, gold lacks one dominant story and is reacting to fast-moving headlines instead. The US-Iran developments and Saudi pipeline progress will keep driving oil, currently the main triggers for gold. More Fed speakers are lined up, and their inflation tone matters. Xi Jinping’s US state visit and his September 24 meeting with Trump also bear watching given the implications for risk sentiment and the dollar.
Gold Price Outlook
Gold remains caught between safe-haven support and rising-rate pressure, likely keeping it choppy rather than trending. ETF inflows, China’s record imports, and steady central-bank buying still argue for buying dips, though elevated yields and a firm dollar should cap sharp upside. Expect spot gold in a $4,300-4,420 range this week, with MCX gold between Rs 1,51,900-1,55,800/10gm.
Gold & Silver Technical Levels
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4345/oz
- Support: $4,320 / $4,230
- Resistance: $4,420 / $4,510
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,53,830
- Support: Rs 1,51,900/ Rs 1,48,800
- Resistance: Rs 1,55,500/ Rs 1,57,500
Silver:International Silver CMP: $66.70/oz
- Support: $65.50 / $63.20
- Resistance: $68.70/ $70.50
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,41,225
- Support: Rs 2,37,250/ Rs 2,28,500
- Resistance: Rs 2,48,500 / Rs 2,54,000
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