Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are showing a positive bias, and while short-term news related fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook is bullish, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold prices have rebounded sharply in August, recovering earlier losses and gaining 14% MTD and bringing the YTD gain to around 7%. However, the metal still remains about 12% below pre-war levels. Last week, gold gained around 7% and briefly moved further to $4,700/oz this week, supported by lower US Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, safe-haven demand and strong investment flows. Prices did witness profit booking at higher levels but the set up remains positive.One of the key drivers was the US Treasury’s decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks. While this helped push long-term yields lower, it also brought US fiscal concerns back into focus. With US government debt above $40 trillion and the fiscal deficit still high, concerns around rising debt, inflation and possible dollar debasement are adding to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.As far as global investment demand is concerned, Global gold ETFs saw around 46.7 tonnes, or $6.4 billion, of inflows last week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025 and the fifth consecutive week of net buying. This shows that the rally is now getting broader support from institutional and portfolio investors, alongside continued central-bank buying.In physical markets, India continues to trade at a discount to landed prices, although the gap has narrowed as demand and imports recover. The latest India update says the discount to landed/import-parity price had narrowed to around $45/oz by August 14, from about $100/oz in May/early June, but remained above July’s average of $34/oz. China’s jewellery demand remains soft, but investment demand is holding up better, with strong gold ETF inflows and continued PBoC buying providing support.
Gold This Week: Jackson Hole in Focus
The main event for gold this week is the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27–29, particularly Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday. Markets will look for clues on interest rates, inflation and the Fed’s view on Treasury yields. US core PCE inflation will also be important. A dovish message from Warsh, combined with softer inflation and lower yields, could support another move higher in gold. A hawkish tone or stronger inflation could lead to some profit-taking.
Gold Price Outlook
The near-term outlook remains positive, but PCE data and Jackson Hole could determine the next move. If yields and the dollar remain under pressure, gold could break above $4,700 and move towards $4,880, while a hawkish Fed message could instead trigger some consolidation. In the longer term, strong ETF inflows, central-bank buying, fiscal concerns, dollar-debasement risks and geopolitical tensions continue to support the bullish case.
Gold Technical Levels
Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,650/oz
- Support: $4,510 / $4,420
- Resistance: $4,750 / $4,890
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,63,500
- Support: Rs 1,58,700/ Rs 1,55,000
- Resistance: Rs 1,67,000/ Rs 1,72,000
Silver Price Outlook
Silver has also rebounded sharply, rising from around $60 at the start of August and briefly testing $70 yesterday. The key drivers are similar to gold, with additional support from strong industrial demand. The Silver Institute expects the market to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, supported by demand from electronics, AI-related infrastructure and power grids, while solar demand is likely to moderate due to reduced subsidy support.International Silver CMP: $68.20/oz
- Support: $65.50 / $52.50
- Resistance: $70.80/ $78.00
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,43,250
- Support: Rs 2,34,000/ Rs 2,23,100
- Resistance: Rs 2,52,700 / Rs 2,78,400
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
