Gold price prediction today: Gold’s outlook in the near-term continues to be cautiously bearish, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Below is here detailed view and outlook on gold prices:Oil prices have taken center stage as escalating US-Iran tensions and Saudi supply disruptions pushed Brent above $108 a barrel, the highest since July. This oil-driven inflation scare, combined with hot US PPI data, sent gold sliding to a more than one-month low, with spot prices testing $4,253 on Monday, down more than 3% for the month and nearly 10% from August’s highs of $4,696.The sell-off deepened as the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through the psychologically important 5% mark, briefly touching 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, sharply raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.The hawkish shift was reinforced by expectations building into Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with swaps now pricing in a 92-95% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, a sharp jump from just a week ago. Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are all now forecasting a hike. A stronger dollar added further pressure on gold. On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remained offline after attacks, loadings at Yanbu port were suspended, and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, keeping oil, and by extension inflation expectations, elevated even as some Wednesday relief emerged from a surprise US crude inventory build.
Gold: Key Focus this week
The dominant catalyst is today’s FOMC decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The rate hike itself is largely priced in and discounted; what matters more is the guidance. If Warsh signals this is the start of a broader tightening cycle, gold faces a fresh real-yield headwind. If he frames it as insurance against oil-driven inflation, bullion could stabilize. Beyond the Fed, markets will track Treasury yields, the dollar index, oil prices and any Middle East de-escalation signals.
Gold Price Outlook
Fundamentally, gold’s near-term outlook stays cautiously bearish, with Fed guidance the key swing factor. That said, gold has held up better than some expected. Persistent fiscal concerns and elevated long-term yields are lending support, while central-bank buying and dollar-debasement themes remain intact drivers for the medium term. In case of any dovish surprise or oil-price relief could spark a sharp recovery.Technically, gold is hovering near the crucial $4,300 pivot. Sustaining below $4,300 could push prices toward $4,250-4,190, while a rebound could test $4,450-4,500. The broader one-week range for spot gold is seen at $4,200-4,450/ oz while for MCX Gold broader range is Rs 146,800-Rs 1,55,500 per 10 gm.Technical Levels Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,326/oz
- Support: $4,250 / $4,190
- Resistance: $4,440 / $4,500
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,51,600
- Support: Rs 1,49,000/ Rs 1,46,800
- Resistance: Rs 1,55,500/ Rs 1,57,000
Silver:International Silver CMP: $64.60/oz
- Support: $62.50 / $60.00
- Resistance: $66.60/ $68.50
MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,35,120
- Support: Rs 2,27,500/ Rs 2,21,000
- Resistance: Rs 2,42,400 / Rs 2,49,300
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