Key data for Gold and Silver this week will be the US Payrolls on Friday, followed by inflation data next week.

Gold price prediction today: For the near-term, the outlook for both silver and gold remains bearish, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Jackson Hole was the key trigger that changed the Fed rate outlook and exerted heavy selling pressure on Gold and Silver since Friday. Spot Gold slipped from a three month high of $4,697 and now hovering below $4,300 level, a decline of almost 9% from highs. The sell-off accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his focus on fighting inflation. Moreover, this week, the renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns and lifting expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed hike this month to nearly 70%.The hawkish tone was reinforced by Fed Governor’s comments, who warned that persistent inflation may require further rate hikes. With global bond yields rising and the dollar strengthening, Gold is facing near-term pressure as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.In the domestic markets, there were rumours last week that the Indian government might cut the import duty on Gold and Silver. MCX Silver, which was trading at a premium to international markets, immediately moved to a discount. However, in the absence of any official announcement, prices have now moved back into premium territory. Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s comments yesterday, urging people to avoid buying Gold unless necessary, have also impacted sentiment. While the comment is unlikely to be a major driver of international Gold prices, it could weigh on domestic sentiment and jewellery-related demand expectations in the near term.

Gold Price Outlook: Key Focus this week

Key data for Gold and Silver this week will be the US Payrolls on Friday, followed by inflation data next week. Beyond US data, Treasury yields, the DXY, oil prices and geopolitical developments and fed rate bets will remain important drivers.Fundamentally, the outlook for Gold and Silver remains cautiously bearish in the near term, with the Fed’s rate path being the key driver. Higher rate-hike expectations, rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are likely to keep precious metals under pressure. However, the recent sharp correction has already priced in a significant part of the hawkish shift. A weaker US labour market or softer inflation could quickly reverse rate expectations and support a recovery in bullion.Technically, Gold is currently hovering near the key pivot level of $4,300/oz. A close below this level could push prices lower towards $4,200–$4,220/oz, while any headline-driven rebound from this zone could push prices higher towards $4,450/oz. Thus, the broader range for Spot Gold is expected to be $4,200–$4,450/oz from a one-week perspective. On the MCX Rs 1,47,700-1,48,000 is a good level to accumulate Gold who intend to purchase Gold in the staggered manner.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold (Spot) CMP: $4,300/oz

MCX Gold CMP: Rs 1,50,000

Silver Price Outlook:

For Silver, the outlook remains more volatile, as it is influenced not only by monetary policy but also by industrial demand and global growth expectations.International Silver CMP: $63.70/oz

MCX Silver CMP: Rs 2,26,850

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